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The role of sectoral shifts in the great moderation

Burren, Daniel - 2008

disaggregated only up to 10 sectors. Blanchard and Simon (2001) come to the same result. Using a new estimation method and more … this in order to get, for each observation period, an estimation of the covariance matrix of the sectoral growth rates … Estimation …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003923367

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2012

This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009511771

Effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional activity : a constrained MFVAR approach

Mandalinci, Zeyyad - 2015

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy shocks on UK regional economic growth and dispersion in a novel Constrained Mixed Frequency Vector Autoregressive framework. Compared to a standard MFVAR, the model partially accounts for missing quarterly observations for regional growth by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011372798

A Bayesian analysis of the PPP puzzle using an unobserved components model

Kleijn, Richard; Dijk, Herman K. van - 2001

The failure to describe the time series behaviour of most realexchange rates as temporary deviations from fixedlong-term means may be due to time variation of the equilibriathemselves, see Engel (2000). We implement thisidea using an unobserved components model and decompose theobservations on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011318578

Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2011

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009720726

Identification of prior information via moment-matching

Sacht, Stephen - 2014

estimation of a standard hybrid New-Keynesian model. In particular, we shed a light on the impact of micro- and macropriors on … the estimation outcome. First, we investigate the impact of the transformation of those model parameters which are bounded …-stage estimation procedure – the so-called Moment-Matching based Bayesian (MoMBay) estimation approach – where we take the point …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010234025

Uncertainty and employment dynamics in the euro area and the US

Netšunajev, Aleksei; Glass, Katharina - 2016

In this paper we investigate transmission and spillovers of local and foreign economic policy uncertainty shocks to unemployment in two largest economic regions in the world - the United States (US) and the Euro area (EA). For this purpose we deploy Bayesian Markov-switching structural vector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011437769

Joint Bayesian analysis of parameters and states in nonlinear, non-Gaussian state space models

Barra, István; Hoogerheide, Lennart; Koopman, Siem Jan; … - 2014

We propose a new methodology for designing flexible proposal densities for the joint posterior density of parameters and states in a nonlinear non-Gaussian state space model. We show that a highly efficient Bayesian procedure emerges when these proposal densities are used in an independent...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010399681

House prices and interest rates : Bayesian evidence from Germany

Hanck, Christoph; Prüser, Jan - 2016

This study uses a Bayesian VAR to demonstrate that the recent house price boom in Germany can be explained by falling interest rates and that higher interest rates are likely suciffient to stop the increase of German house prices. The latter suggests a potential drawback of the current monetary...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011494870

Modeling and estimation of synchronization in multistate Markov-switching models

Çakmaklı, Cem; Paap, Richard; Dijk, Dick van - 2010

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011382676