This paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from 1965 to 1980. A host of survey-based measures and financial market data indicate that long-run inflation expectations rose markedly from 1965 to 1969, leveled off in the mid-1970s,...

This paper explores ways to integrate model uncertainty into policy evaluation. We first describe a general framework for the incorporation of model uncertainty into standard econometric calculations. This framework employs Bayesian model averaging methods that have begun to appear in a range of...

This paper investigates empirically the possibility that a central bank could adhere to a macro-oriented monetary policy rule while also providing lender-of-last-resort services to the financial system. The method considered involves smoothing week-to-week movements of an interest rate...

The Taylor Rule is widely considered a useful tool to summarise the Fed’s policy, but the information set employed in practice to assess the state of economic activity is still an object of debate. The contribution of this paper is to provide evidence in favour of the following hypotheses....