We derive an econometric disequilibrium model for time series data. This is done by error correcting the supply of some good. The model naturally separates between a continuously clearing market and a clearing market in the long-run such that we are able to obtain a novel test of clearing...

It is well documented that the term structure of interest rates has predictive power for real economic growth. Applying the stepwise superior predictive ability test, we find that superior models contain both a short-term rate and a term spread.

Uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) provides a crucial theoretical concept for many models in international finance and international monetary economics. Using quarterly data span from 1998Q1 to 2010Q3, we run conventional regressions (OLS) and simple GARCH analysis on UIRP for the case of...

Testing for unit roots in short-term interest rates plays a key role in the empirical modelling of these series. It is widely assumed that the volatility of interest rates follows some time-varying function which is dependent of the level of the series. This may cause distortions in the...

This paper analyzes the cause-and-effect relationships between the Fed’s balance sheet and consumer prices, and between the federal government debt and the Fed’s balance sheet during the period 2008Q1to 2021Q4. Although contemporaneous Fed purchases of public and private sector debt and...

The recent surge in consumer prices beginning in 2021 has been attributed by government officials to supply chain disruptions, war in Ukraine, the coronavirus pandemic, and corporate greed. Between 2008Q4 and 2021Q1 the consumer price index (CPI) increased 32 percent from about 211 to 280....

This paper examines the effect of changes in Federal Reserve assets and consumer prices during the stewardship of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Since his appointment in February 2018 until July 2022, the average monthly increase in consumer prices was 0.31 percent—more than 2.4 times...

This paper proposes SupWald tests from a threshold autoregressive model computed with an adaptive set of thresholds. Simple examples of adaptive threshold sets are given. A second contribution of the paper is a general asymptotic null limit theory when the threshold variable is a level variable....

We derive new theoretical results on the properties of the adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (adaptive lasso) for time series regression models. In particular we investigate the question of how to conduct finite sample inference on the parameters given an adaptive lasso...

This paper investigates the response of US stock market uncertainty to monetary policy of the Federal Reserve Bank. It can be shown that monetary policy significantly Granger-causes stock market confidence. By using monthly closing prices of the V IX as a stock market uncertainty proxy and a...