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This paper assesses the linkages between money, credit, house prices and economic activity in industrialised countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel VAR estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the period 1970-2006. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604934
In modern capitalist economies, income distribution has a tendency to be in favor of shareholders. This paper interprets pro-shareholder distribution as a decrease in the retention ratio of firms and an increase in the profit share. We introduce labor supply constraints into a post-Keynesian...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014363193
Investment booms and asset "bubbles" are often the consequence of heavily leveraged borrowing and speculations of persistent growth in asset demand. We show theoretically that dynamic interactions between elastic credit supply (due to leveraged borrowing) and persistent credit demand (due to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013115731
An assessment of the current state of housing viewed from the perspective of the slowly-recovering economy, coupled with valuations of the housing market, suggests there is a high likelihood of a double dip in housing prices. With current prices nearly 30 percent below their April 2006 peak, an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038549
Why are asset prices so much more volatile and so often detached from their fundamental values? Why does the bursting of financial bubbles depress the real economy? This paper addresses these questions by constructing an infinite-horizon heterogeneous agent general equilibrium model with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013158843
Capital gains play an important, positive role in the inter-temporal allocation of resources, but they can also be a source of economic instability. We analyze a simple overlapping-generations economy with capital goods and irreversible investment. For each vector of initial capital/labor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012726843
The interest rate at which US firms borrow funds has two features: (i) it moves in a countercyclical fashion and (ii) it is an inverted leading indicator of real economic activity: low interest rates forecast booms in GDP, consumption, investment, and employment. We show that a Kiyotaki-Moore...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012903888
This paper assesses the links between money, credit, house prices, and economic activity in industrialized countries over the last three decades. The analysis is based on a fixed-effects panel vector autoregression, estimated using quarterly data for 17 industrialized countries spanning the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012758999
Goodhart and Hoffman aim to examine causal and other links between house prices, liquidity, and activity, and this note comments on their results. One part of the mechanism is via wealth-but arguably house-price changes have little net impact on wealth, although there are collateral effects. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012759001
We examine the ability of auto industry stock returns to forecast quarterly changes in the growth rates of real GDP, consumption, and investment. We find that auto stock returns are superior toaggregate stock market returns in predicting growth rates of GDP and various forms of consumption. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012708334