Empirical evidence shows that sovereign defaults are associated with significant downturns in economic activity in defaulting countries. However, the existing literature on sovereign debt and default mainly analyzes endowment economies and, therefore, does not address the relationship between...

Motivated by the apparent failure of the credit multiplier mechanism (CM) to deliver amplification in DSGE models, we re-examine its role in business cycles to address the question: is something wrong with the CM? Our answer is no. In coming to this answer we construct a model with reproducible...

Quantitative analysis of a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator and risk shocks shows that violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction between policymaking authorities undermine significantly the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. Separate...

Evidence suggests that potential growth and the neutral rate co-move in advanced economies. In contrast, this co-movement is not observed in emerging economies. We argue that capital flows may explain this behavior. We focus on Mexico, a benchmark emerging economy, and find that capital inflows...

We estimate the term premium implicit in 10-year Mexican government bonds from 2004 to 2019, and analyze the main determinants explaining its dynamics. To do so, we decompose the longterm interest rate into its two components: the expected short-term interest rate and the term premium. The...

This document studies the recent evolution of the break-even-inflation implicit in the yields of long-term financial instruments in Mexico. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of its main components: the long-run inflation expectation and the inflationary risk premium, which are estimated by...

In a New Keynesian model with the BGG accelerator and risk shocks, we show that violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction between economic authorities undermine the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. Separate monetary and financial policy rules produce higher...

This paper studies the trade-offs that can arise between inflation targeting and financial stability objectives. We use a simple framework to conduct macroeconomic policy analysis under three strategies: (1) a benchmark case where monetary policy pursues traditional price stability objectives;...

Violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction undermine monetary and financial policies significantly in a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator. Welfare costs of risk shocks are large because of efficiency losses and income effects of costly monitoring, but they...

We use a novel dataset that merges goods-level prices underlying the CPI in Mexico with the balance sheet information of Mexican publicly listed firms and study the connection between firms' financing structure and price dynamics in an emerging economy. First, we find that larger firms (in terms...