This document studies the recent evolution of the break-even-inflation implicit in the yields of long-term financial instruments in Mexico. In particular, it analyzes the dynamics of its main components: the long-run inflation expectation and the inflationary risk premium, which are estimated by...

Quantitative analysis of a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator and risk shocks shows that violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction between policymaking authorities undermine significantly the effectiveness of monetary and financial policies. Separate...

We estimate the term premium implicit in 10-year Mexican government bonds from 2004 to 2019, and analyze the main determinants explaining its dynamics. To do so, we decompose the longterm interest rate into its two components: the expected short-term interest rate and the term premium. The...

Violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction undermine monetary and financial policies significantly in a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator. Welfare costs of risk shocks are large because of efficiency losses and income effects of costly monitoring, but they...

Evidence suggests that potential growth and the neutral rate co-move in advanced economies. In contrast, this co-movement is not observed in emerging economies. We argue that capital flows may explain this behavior. We focus on Mexico, a benchmark emerging economy, and find that capital inflows...

Violations of Tinbergen's Rule and strategic interaction undermine monetary and financial policies significantly in a New Keynesian model with the Bernanke-Gertler accelerator. Welfare costs of risk shocks are large because of efficiency losses and income effects of costly monitoring, but they...