This paper considers business cycle models with agents who dislike both risk and ambiguity (Knightian uncertainty). Ambiguity aversion is described by recursive multiple priors preferences that capture agents' lack of confidence in probability assessments. While modeling changes in risk...

This study examines how fluctuations in the amount of capital flowing into venture funds affect the financing of innovative startup companies and how economic downturns affect such financing. We argue that the nature of the economic downturn can cause differential effects on the investment...

The prevailing view in the literature is that small family firms outperform nonfamily businesses. The nature of the former's management style also means that these businesses are more likely to sustain their performance in a recession. Drucker (1985b) extended the Schumpeterian view that the...

This paper studies the role of investment-specific shocks as an amplification mechanism of labor market fluctuations. We first show evidence suggesting that after a fall in the relative price of new equipment, not only do investment and output increase but firms also post more vacancies, hours...

The paper is divided into three parts with those charts omitted. We have found the global macro cycle logic behind US-dollar index and the gold, and then demonstrate directly several theorems and statistical inference on Quantitative Global Macro and Asset Pricing. Part 1: Changes and Resonance...

This paper investigates stylized facts of the cyclical nature of four German loan aggregates and of their comovement with GDP growth in the period from 1971-2011. According to the estimates, credit growth is characterized by strong cycles at low frequencies and rather weak cyclicality at higher...

We provide new evidence on the the cyclical behavior of household size in the United States from 1979 to 2010. During economic downturns, people live in larger households. This is mostly, but not entirely, driven by young people moving into or delaying departure from the parental home. We assess...

The durables manufacturing sector is modeled as a production chain consisting of firms that produce to order and firms that produce to stock. Output movements are driven solely by shocks to final demand. Separate demand models are estimated over four separate sub-samples spanning the 1967-2011...

Heightened uncertainty since the onset of the Great Recession has materially increased saving rates, contributing to lower consumption and GDP growth. Consistent with a model of precautionary savings in the face of uncertainty, we find for a panel of advanced economies that greater labor income...