, materially heighten the risk of financial crises. Both effects have become stronger in the postwar era …

This paper presents a new dataset on the dynamics of non-performing loans (NPLs) during 88 banking crises since 1990 …. The data show similarities across crises during NPL build-ups but less so during NPL resolutions. We find a close … relationship between NPL problems-elevated and unresolved NPLs-and the severity of post-crisis recessions. A machine learning …

analytically and using a real-life empirical example of yield spread as a predictor of recessions. We show that false alarm rate in … quantify the extent to which ROC could be exaggerating the true predictive value of the yield curve in predicting recessions. …

comprehensive real-time forecasting exercise for recessions in the US. Moreover, we propose a novel smooth transition modelling …

-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …. - Recessions ; forecasting ; probit ; VAR …

We reassess the predictability of U.S. recessions at horizons from three months to two years ahead for a large number … significantly improves the predictability of recessions at shorter horizons. Moreover, balances in broker-dealer margin accounts …

-post classification of recessions and non-recessions 95% of the time for the one-quarter forecast horizon and 87% of the time for the four …

useful in forecasting recessions. Specifically, output tends to transition to a slow-growth phase at the end of expansions …