This paper investigates the asymptotic properties of the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of structural parameters in a stylised macroeconomic model in which agents are boundedly rational and use an adaptive learning rule to form expectations of the endogenous variable. In particular, when...

This chapter provides a survey of the recent work on learning in the context of macroeconomics. Learning has several roles. First, it provides a boundedly rational model of how rational expectations can be achieved. Secondly, learning acts as a selection device in models with multiple REE...

We examine the complexity of financial returns generated by popular agent-based models through studying multifractal properties of such time series. Specifically, we are interested in the sensitivity of the models to their parameter settings and whether some patterns emerge in the connection...

Agent-based models are usually claimed to generate complex dynamics; however, the link to such complexity has not been subject to rigorous examination. This paper studies this link between the complexity of financial time series---measured by their multifractal properties---and the design of...

A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

The concept of “overconfidence” is one of the great success stories of psychological research, influencing discourse in the popular press, business, and public policy. Relative to underconfidence, overconfidence at various tasks is purportedly associated with greater narcissism, lower...

A growing literature uses now widely available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...