We analyse the forecasting power of different monetary aggregates and credit variables for US GDP. Special attention is paid to the influence of the recent financial market crisis. For that purpose, in the first step we use a three-variable single-equation framework with real GDP, an interest...

This paper explains and forecasts the demand for banknotes issued in Germany. For small and large denomination notes we estimate vector error correction models (VECM). The results suggest that the long-run demand for German small denomination notes is mainly driven by domestic transactions and...

The present paper presents three different short-term oil models on a weekly basis. With these models we try to forecast oil prices out-of-sample up to three months. Two of the models are based on the VAR methodology and consider fundamental factors like the net long position and oil...

The paper derives the monetary policy reaction function implied by money growth targeting. It consists of an interest rate response to deviations of the inflation rate from target, to the change in the output gap, to money demand shocks and to the lagged interest rate. We show that this type of...

In this paper, we analyze the volume of euro banknotes issued by Germany within the euro area with several seasonal methods. We draw a distinction between movements within Germany, circulation outside Germany but within the euro area and demand from non-euroarea countries. Our approach suggests...

What role does (should) money play in modern central banking? To answer this question, it is necessary to distinguish between the different level playing fields of monetary policy. At the operational level, it is a short-term money market rate which the central bank tries to and can control....

Seit der Einführung des Euro-Bargelds ist der Umlauf deutscher Banknoten außerordentlich stark gestiegen. Vor allem der Auslandsumlauf spielt dabei eine Rolle - und hier wiederum der Umlauf außerhalb des Euroraums. Die Autoren schätzen die regionale Verteilung dieses Umlaufs mithilfe...

This paper describes the demand and supply factors affecting the amounts of deposits held by banks with the Eurosystem in the first 18 months of Stage Three of EMU and differences to the years before. The paper starts from the methodology adopted in a recent study by James Hamilton on 'The...

The present paper analyses currency in circulation in the euro area since the beginning of the 1980s. After a comprehensive literature review on this topic we present some stylised facts on currency holdings in the euro area countries as well as at an aggregate euro area level. The next chapter...