We model a sovereign debt manager who has a prediction of the budget deficit and needs to raise debt at the beginning of the budget period. In this setting, the sovereign may issue debt in excess of expected funding needs – a precautionary cash buffer – as a measure of self-insurance against...

Based on a permanent income analysis, Gagnon (2018) has prominently suggested that Norwayhas saved too much, thereby free-riding on the rest of the world for demand. Our public sectorbalance sheet analysis comes to the opposite conclusion, chiefly because it also accounts forfuture aging costs....

Spanish Abstract: En este documento se presenta una herramienta, disponible en el Banco de España, para la previsión de los pagos por intereses de las Administraciones Públicas (AAPP) en nuestro país. Frente a modelos más detallados, que tienen en cuenta las características específicas y...

According to the 2016 year-end data, the regional consolidated budget and local government off-budget funds' budget ran a deficit of Rb 303.5m and thereby reached an almost deficit-free level.By comparison, the regional consolidated budget and local government off-budget funds' budget amounted...

Current account deficit has become a common phenomenon in both developed and developing countries. Although there is a plethora of perspective towards the current account deficit-economic growth nexus, there is still no consensus on the impact and direction of causality. This study seeks to...

This paper examines the transition costs of a mandatory private, second pension pillar. We use a comprehensive model with real demographic, employment, and public retirement data; and combine it with private pension pillar features. The model shows that fiscal sustainability and improved accrual...

Public sector balance sheets (PSBS) provide a framework for comprehensive and deepanalysis of fiscal risks and policies. To illustrate these benefits, this paper shows how PSBSanalysis can be applied to assess risks to Indonesia's public sector stemming from its publiccorporations. The paper...

This paper assesses the impact of Eurobonds on sovereign debt dynamics for selected European member states (Greece, Ireland and Portugal). For each member state, we produce sovereign debt fan charts of (i) a baseline scenario (no Eurobonds) and (ii) Full-Fledged Eurobond introduction. The key...

This paper applies the probabilistic debt sustainability model developed for the euro area in Cline (2012, 2014) to sovereign debt in the United States and Japan. The results indicate that to avoid further increases in the expected ratio of public debt to GDP over the next decade, average annual...

Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region's fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit...