This paper examines the institutional arrangements of the macro-fiscal function in 16 African countries. Most ministries of finance (MoFs) have established a macro-fiscal department or unit, but their functions, size, structure and outputs vary considerably. Based on a survey, we present data on...

In connection with the immensely increasing public debt both within the European Union and in other leading industrial countries of the world, reproaches are made again and again that this constitutes also an increasing burden for the future generations of the population of these countries. Such...

We develop a debt-to-GDP forecasting framework incorporating the classical debt accounting relationship relating the debt-to-GDP ratio to its previous period value, the growth rate of the economy, the government cost of debt service, and the primary balance. We present a linearization of the...

For a sample of sixteen OECD countries over the period 1980-2007 we show that, for given debt-GDP ratio, an increase in the maturity of the public debt by one year lowers its long-term interest rate by around 20-30 basis points. This effect is stronger for countries with higher average inflation...

This paper analyzes the Greek debt crisis. It is shown how the rescue package of 110 bn euro is shared among the IMF and the Euroarea-members in order to overcome the short-run problems. For the longer-run solution of the crisis several exit scenarios are presented and discussed: Under what...

The Maastricht definition of government debt constitutes a central pillar of the European fiscal governance architecture. When EU member states agreed on the definition as part of the euro convergence criteria, they took a narrow approach to debt. The 2008 financial crisis and later the euro...

This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most...

Der Schuldenstand des deutschen Staates wächst in der Pandemie auf voraussichtlich 2,7 Billionen Euro im Jahr 2022. Der Zenit der Schuldenstandquote wird bereits Ende dieses Jahres mit 75 Prozent erreicht werden. Von den 650 Milliarden zusätzlichen Staatsschulden während der Corona-Krise...