The paper applies quantile regression technique, specifically, quantile vector autoregression to stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and the construction of public debt fan charts. Stochastic approach to DSA typically uses standard ordinary least squares vector autoregression (OLS VAR)...

Credibility of the revised fiscal rules will be crucial so that vulnerable countries can benefit from confidence effects. National ownership will be key in that respect and can be supported via a stronger role of independent national fiscal institutions.

The present cocktail of a bleak economic outlook combined with high inflation and rising interest rates has raised questions as to whether a new euro debt crisis might emerge. Euro area sovereign spreads have widened, but not to "unwarranted" levels, unlike the situation that prevailed during...

We construct comprehensive public sector balance sheets for Finland for 2000-2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and pensions. These static balance sheets show that Finland's public sector net worth at end 2016 was - 160 percent of GDP, after...

This study aims to evaluate the public debt sustainability of Pakistan using the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework and fiscal reaction function (FRF). For the empirical analysis, it uses relevant important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, external debt, primary balance,...

Purpose: The study investigates the effect of corruption on FDI inflows to West Africa, and also establishes a threshold level of corruption for the sub-region. Design/Methodology/Approach: Using secondary data for the period 1999-2018, the study adopted a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag...

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis and great recession, many countries face substantial deficits and growing debts. In the United States, federal government outlays as a ratio to GDP rose substantially from about 19.5 percent before the crisis to over 24 percent after the crisis. In...

Dieser Beitrag beschäftigt sich mit der Frage, ob die Schuldenbremse in ihrer jetzigen Form noch zeitgemäß ist oder ob sie modifiziert, reformiert oder gänzlich abgeschafft werden sollte? Zentral sind dabei Überlegungen, ob im Rahmen der Schuldenbremse "Zukunftsinvestitionen" anders...

Against a backdrop of debt ratio targets being central to recent proposed changes to the EU fiscal rules, we examine errors in official forecasts of the General Government debt ratios and their determinants in 26 member states from 2012 to 2019 when the "six pack" rules applied. We find debt...

Die bisher vom Bund im Rahmen der Ausnahme von der Schuldenbremse aufgenommenen Notkredite müssen zwischen 2028 und 2061 getilgt werden. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden die rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen, die fiskalischen Auswirkungen und die Herausforderungen beim Schuldenmanagement näher...