The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a renewed increase in government deficits and debts in many EU countries, causing a full-fledged fiscal crisis in Greece and severe fiscal pressures in other euro-area countries. This has prompted a series of proposals for improving the fiscal framework...

Our previous assessment of debt sustainability in developing Asia, conducted in 2011, found that the region's fiscal outlook was mostly benign. In this study we update the debt sustainability assessment, taking stock of the latest data and including a larger number of countries. With the benefit...

Rising public debt in sub-Saharan Africa remains a matter of concern. We provide an analysis of public debt and debt sustainability in Tanzania, focusing on external debt. Though current and previous analyses using the IMF-World Bank debt sustainability framework indicate low risk of public...

This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most...

The paper applies quantile regression technique, specifically, quantile vector autoregression to stochastic debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and the construction of public debt fan charts. Stochastic approach to DSA typically uses standard ordinary least squares vector autoregression (OLS VAR)...

Credibility of the revised fiscal rules will be crucial so that vulnerable countries can benefit from confidence effects. National ownership will be key in that respect and can be supported via a stronger role of independent national fiscal institutions.

The present cocktail of a bleak economic outlook combined with high inflation and rising interest rates has raised questions as to whether a new euro debt crisis might emerge. Euro area sovereign spreads have widened, but not to "unwarranted" levels, unlike the situation that prevailed during...

We construct comprehensive public sector balance sheets for Finland for 2000-2016 by complementing general government statistics with data on public corporations and pensions. These static balance sheets show that Finland's public sector net worth at end 2016 was - 160 percent of GDP, after...

This study aims to evaluate the public debt sustainability of Pakistan using the debt sustainability analysis (DSA) framework and fiscal reaction function (FRF). For the empirical analysis, it uses relevant important macroeconomic variables, such as public debt, external debt, primary balance,...