This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in fiscal policy and, more precisely, public investments in Brazil. The approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling. The greatest benefit is to...

This Discussion Paper describes the changes brought about by the 2019 reform in the federal Public Employees' Retirement System (PERS) and the developments in the states, the Federal District and municipalities. Regarding the states and the Federal District, we analyze the details of the new...

This paper addresses a disaggregated analysis which integrates gross and net public debt or, in other words, government assets and liabilities. This approach seemed appropriate due to the recent transition in the patrimonial composition of the public sector undertaken by the means of...

The paper estimates a panel-VAR using data on total expenditures, tax receipts and overall grants received for 5.544 Brazilian municipalities observed from 2002 through 2010. A sequence of hypotheses was investigated by the means of overidentification test statistics. Among our main findings, we...

We estimate a VAR model of the Phillips curve with an exchange rate shock to the Brazilian economy. Several different specifications, with different time frequencies, were estimated. Overall the results were robust to these changes, and can be summed up in the following: i) the pass-through to...

This paper studies the determination of the surpluses of the Brazilian central government. For quarterly data from 1996 through 2011, the empirical strategy included: i) structural break models and nonlinear estimates on the level of public debt, to handle the inertia after 1999, for high levels...

Este artigo estima um modelo Vetorial Autorregressivo (VAR) da curva de Phillips, com choques cambiais, para a economia brasileira. Foram estimadas várias especificações, com diferentes frequências de dados, que confirmaram a robustez dos resultados. Os resultados econométricos sugerem que:...

Este texto estuda a determinação dos superávits do governo central brasileiro. Para dados trimestrais de 1996 a 2011, a estratégia empírica envolveu: i) modelos de quebra estrutural e estimativas não lineares no nível da dívida pública para lidar com a inércia percebida após 1999,...

This text aims to offer three contributions to the study of Brazilian public expenditures on health and education. First by constructing annual and bimonthly estimates of these expenditures in order to allow time series analyses of their historical evolution. Second by analysing the relative...