We examine "Forward Guidance Contracts", which make central bankers' utility contingent on the precision of interest-rate forecasts for some time. Such Forward Guidance Contracts are a exible commitment device and can improve economic performance when the economy is stuck in a liquidity trap....

Expectations are among the main driving forces for economic dynamics. Therefore, managing expectations has become a primary objective for monetary policy seeking to stabilize the business cycle. In this paper, we study whether central banks can manage market expectations by means of forward...

In a large sample of countries across different geographic regions and over a long period of time, we find limited country- and variable-specific effects of central bank transparency on forecast accuracy and their dispersion among a large set of professional forecasts of financial and...

This paper conducts a comparative analysis of the performances of the forward guidance strategies adopted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Norges Bank and the Riksbank, with the aim to gauge whether forward guidance via publication of an own interest rate path enhances a central bank’s...

Japan has been in a benign liquidity trap since 1990. In a benign liquidity trap, interest rates approach zero, prices decline, and monetary policy is ineffective but output and employment perform decently. Such a pattern contradicts traditional macro theories. This paper introduces a monetary...

We examine the credit channel of monetary policy from 2000 to 2015 in the Euro Area using daily monetary policy shock and credit risk measures in an autoregressive distributed lag model. We find that an expansionary monetary policy shock leads to a short-run increase in the credit risk of...

We document that during the Global Recession, US monetary policy easings triggered the "exorbitant duty" of the United States, the issuer of the world's dominant currency, by causing a dollar appreciation and a transfer of wealth from the United States to the rest of the world. This dollar...

We study the incidence and severity of lower-bound episodes and the efficacy of three types of state-dependent policies - forward guidance about the future path of interest rates, large-scale asset purchases and spending-based fiscal stimulus - in ameliorating the adverse consequences stemming...

Negative interest rates remain a controversial policy for central banks. We study a novel signalling channel and ask under what conditions negative rates should exist in an optimal policymaker's toolkit. We prove two necessary conditions for the optimality of negative rates: a time-consistent...

We examine forward guidance (with known and uncertain duration) in a New Keynesian model for an advanced small open economy, showing that the response of the economy to this policy depends, both quantitatively and qualitatively, on some structural features through calibrations for Sweden and...