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I establish that inflation risk is priced in the cross section of stock returns: Stocks that have low returns during … inflationary times command a risk premium. I estimate a market price of inflation risk that is comparable in magnitude to the price … of risk for the aggregate market. Inflation is therefore a key determinant of risk in the cross section of stocks. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009752802
For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey … models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency measures which appear anachronistic in the modern era of high … frequency and real-time data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations, including many …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647457
This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009647230
value of German assets and the volatility of returns on them. Instead, it was inflation (and the fear of it) that is largely …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005707943
We study how investors respond to inflation combining a customized survey experiment with trading data at a time of … historically high inflation. Investors' beliefs about the stock return-inflation relation are very heterogeneous in the cross … section and on average too optimistic. Moreover, many investors appear unaware of inflation-hedging strategies despite being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544748
I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of … inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused … on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009650037
negative relations between asset returns and inflation are addressed. The generalized impulse response functions are adopted … negative relationship between stock prices and inflation. The level of real economic activity affects stock prices positively …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008642427
impact of inflation on stock market returns and volatility using monthly time series data from two West African countries … case holds for Ghana. Furthermore, inflation rate and its three month average were found to have significant effect on … stock market volatility in the two countries. Measures employed towards restraining inflation in the two countries …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009643216
nominal return on stocks move in one to one correspondence with the expected rate of inflation. The relationship between … nominal stock return and inflation is examined for four stock indices. The empirical results suggest that the Fisher effect …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010783665
U.S. stocks' response to inflation surprises is, on average, robustly negative. Stocks' response to positive inflation … surprises shows much more pronounced time-series variability than their response to negative inflation surprises. In our sample …, stocks react significantly to positive inflation surprises only when there is a contemporaneous change in monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014236131