A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

We combine two techniques to consistently estimate the effect of active labour market programmes and, in particular, active labour market policy regimes. Our aim is to explicitly estimate the threat effect of active labour market programmes. Based on Danish data (1998-2002) from administrative...

This paper investigates how rent control affects mobility on the Danish private rental housing market. Based on a unique and extensive data set a measure of the degree of rent regulation of each housing unit is calculated, and this is coupled with socio-economic characteristics and spells of...

In this article we develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure that corrects for possible endogeneity of a variable in a duration model. We assume a Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. This model is based on transforming the durations and assuming a distribution for...

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. This paper studies the possible implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from...

While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can aect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...

This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different...

A crucially important advantage of the semiparametric regression approach to the nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model developed in Wongsaart et al. (2011), i.e. the so-called Semiparametric ACD (SEMI-ACD) model, is the fact that its estimation method does not require a...

While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can affect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...

This paper analyses the link between irregular migration and duration of stay. Using household and regional development data from Moldova and running a duration model, we find that duration of migration is longer for illegal migrants than legal migrants. Further investigation demonstrates that...