A new empirical reduced-form model for credit rating transitions is introduced. It is a parametric intensity-based duration model with multiple states and driven by exogenous covariates and latent dynamic factors. The model has a generalized semi-Markov structure designed to accommodate many of...

In this article we develop an Instrumental Variable estimation procedure that corrects for possible endogeneity of a variable in a duration model. We assume a Generalized Accelerated Failure Time (GAFT) model. This model is based on transforming the durations and assuming a distribution for...

Dans la plupart des modèles de recherche, Le taux d'actualisation est un facteur important conditionnant la prise de décisions telles que le choix du salaire de réserve ou l'intensité de la recherche d’emploi. Les individus ayant une forte préférence pour le présent ne cherchent pas...

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. Since then their labor markets have become more dynamic. This paper studies the implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment, with particular emphasis on the changes in the duration...

In the mid-1980s, many European countries introduced fixed-term contracts. This paper studies the possible implications of such reforms for the duration distribution of unemployment. I estimate a parametric duration model using cross-sectional data drawn from the Spanish Labor Force Survey from...

This paper considers the definition and identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under sequential random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Because treated and control units drop out at different...

A crucially important advantage of the semiparametric regression approach to the nonlinear autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model developed in Wongsaart et al. (2011), i.e. the so-called Semiparametric ACD (SEMI-ACD) model, is the fact that its estimation method does not require a...

While job search theory predicts that active labour market policies (ALMPs) can aect post-unemployment outcomes, empirical evaluations investigating transition rates have mostly focused on the impact of ALMPs on exit rates from the current unemployment spell. We use a social experiment, which...

This paper exploits a substantial reform of the Dutch UI law to study the effect of the entitlement period on job finding and subsequent labor market outcomes. Using detailed administrative data covering the full population we find that reducing the entitlement period increases the job finding...

The public housing sector provides housing units at below-market rents, potentially allowing its tenants to save for a downpayment more quickly than they would have otherwise. In this paper, we analyze the e-ffect of a spell in public housing on age at first-time homeownership using the French...