Keynes (1911) derived general forms of probability density functions for which the “most probable value” is given by the arithmetic mean, the geometric mean, the harmonic mean, or the median. His approach was based on indirect (i.e., posterior) distributions and used a constant prior...

It is well-known in empirical nance that virtually all asset returns, whether monthly, daily, or intraday, are heavy-tailed and, particularly for stock returns, are mildly but often signi cantly negatively skewed. However, the tail indices, or maximally existing moments of the returns, can di er...

There has been an extensive discussion on the applicability of Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) to trade. Here, we are going to analyse again the performance of PPML but in the light of a bimodal distribution; in addition, we also explicitly account for excess zeros. Simulations are...

J.M. Keynes (1911) shows how distributions look like for which the arithmetic, the geometric and the harmonic mean are "most probable values". We propose a general class of distributions for which the quasi-arithmetic means are ML-estimators such that these distributions can be transformed into...