We propose a nonlinear filter to estimate the time-varying default risk from the term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Based on the numerical solution of the Fokker–Planck equation (FPE) using a meshfree interpolation method, the filter performs a joint estimation of the...

This paper introduces an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for financial trading, which learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of intraday tick data sampled at high frequency. The empirical data used in our investigation are five-minute mid-price time series...

This paper discusses the possibility of recovering normality of asset returns through a stochastic time change, where the appropriate economic time is determined through a simple parametric function of the cumulative number of trades and/or the cumulative volume. The existing literature argues...

<heading id="h1" level="1" implicit="yes" format="display">Abstract</heading>I analyze the dynamic trading behavior of market participants by developing a bivariate modeling framework for describing the arrival process of buy and sell orders in a limit order book. The model contains an extended autoregressive conditional duration model with a flexible generalized...

This paper introduces a new bivariate autoregressive conditional framework (ACD×ACL) for modelling the arrival process of buy and sell orders in a limit order book. The model contains two dynamic components to describe the observed clustering of durations and order types: a duration process to...