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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2013
line with theory, induce a negative nowcast error but raise economic activity in the short run. They account for up to 30 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010224834
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Growth expectations, undue optimism, and short-run fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2017
VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth … and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011649164
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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations
Enders, Zeno - 2018
VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth … and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks – in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938129
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Growth Expectations, Undue Optimism, and Short-Run Fluctuations
Enders, Zeno; Kleemann, Michael; Müller, Gernot J. - 2021
VAR model. It is based on nowcast errors regarding current output growth, that is, the difference between actual growth … and the real-time prediction of professional forecasters. We find that optimism shocks - in line with theory - generate a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315454
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Do bivariate SVAR models with long-run identifying restrictions yield reliable results? : the case of Germany
Gottschalk, Jan; Van Zandweghe, Willem - 2001
Bivariate SVAR models employing long-run identifying restrictions are often used to investigate the source of business cycle fluctuations. Their advantage is the simplicity in use and interpretation. However, their low dimension may also lead to a failure of the identification procedure, with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011476382
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News-driven business cycles in SVARs
Bunk, Patrick - 2011
Recent studies proposed news about future technology growth as the main driver of macroeconomic fluctuations. The identification of these news through stock prices in SVARs has been criticized in the past. Therefore, I propose a series of experiments to test that hypothesis by examining its...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009229732
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Empirical essays on business cycle analysis and financial constraints
Kleemann, Michael - 2014
This dissertation comprises three distinct economic stduies. The first deals with the origin of business cycle fluctuations and the other two with the measurement of financial constraints and the identification of the respective treatment effect.
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010526643
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On the macroeconomic effects of immigration : a VAR analysis for the US
Weiske, Sebastian - 2019
consistent with standard growth theory. Investment increases, while real wages fall in the short run. Overall, immigration has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011980497
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News shocks under financial frictions
Görtz, Christoph; Tsoukalas, John D.; Zanetti, Francesco - 2020
. We document two new facts using VAR methods. First, a (positive) shock to future TFP generates a significant decline in …, VAR methods also establish a tight link between TFP news shocks and shocks that explain the majority of un …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012373126
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Is there news in inventories?
Görtz, Christoph; Gunn, Christopher M.; Lubik, Thomas A. - 2020
We identify total factor productivity (TFP) news shocks using standard VAR methodology and document a new stylized fact …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012213178