This paper identifies leading indicators of fiscal crises based on a large sample of countries at different stages of development over 1970-2015. Our results are robust to different methodologies and sample periods. Previous literature on early warning sistems (EWS) for fiscal crises is scarce...

Using flow of funds and high frequency data from the Investment Company Institute, we study the effects of monetary policy shocks on the size of non-bank assets as well as on flows into long-term mutual funds and returns on their assets. Consolidating chains of non-bank intermediation to avoid...

This note provides guidance on how to calibrate fiscal rules, that is, how to determine the thresholds (ceiling, floor, or target) for specific fiscal aggregates constrained by rules. The note focuses, more specifically, on the calibration of the debt, balance, and expenditure rules. The note is...