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modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010335245
modelling is required. We propose here the use of Copulas to build flexible multivariate distributions, since they allow for a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009651073
The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013147524
The study aims at simulating and forecasting a company's stock returns and prices by a fundamentalist analysis process …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013129177
We compare real-time density forecasts for the euro area using three DSGE models. The benchmark is the Smets-Wouters model and its forecasts of real GDP growth and inflation are compared with those from two extensions. The first adds financial frictions and expands the observables to include a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813503
the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from … harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014137906
and macroeconomic forecasting. The first paper, Using Sentiment Surveys to Predict GDP Growth and Stock Returns sheds new … forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and … allocation, and economic forecasting. The third paper, An Inflation Expectations Horserace, examines the use of high …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013055949
Measuring bias is important as it helps identify flaws in quantitative forecasting methods or judgmental forecasts. It … point forecasts are available for different forecasting methods and for multiple horizons over multiple series. We focus on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314570
and the authors expect they might contribute to the field of financial planning and forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014211147
To simultaneously consider mixed-frequency time series, their joint dynamics, and possible structural changes, we introduce a time-varying parameter mixed-frequency VAR. To keep our approach from becoming too complex, we implement time variation parsimoniously: only the intercepts and a common...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011903709