We study the credit-risk-taking behaviour of Italian banks in response to changes in the term structure of interest rates using a confidential dataset on new loans to non-financial firms. We find that ex-ante risk-taking is negatively related to the short end of the yield curve but positively to...

We estimate a Bayesian VAR with a detailed characterization of the banking sector for Italy since the 1990s. We use conditional forecasting techniques to retrieve bank capital shocks related to regulatory and supervisory initiatives and quantify their impact on credit supply and economic...

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...

The prices of futures contracts on short-term interest rates are commonly used by central banks to gauge market expectations concerning monetary policy decisions. Excess returns - the difference between futures rates and the realized rates - are positive, on average, and statistically...