We study how information affects equilibria and welfare in games. For an agent, more precise information about an unknown state of the world leads to a mean-preserving spread of beliefs. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions to obtain either a non-increasing mean or a...

Abstract A nonparametric method for comparing multiple forecast models is developed and implemented. The hypothesis of Optimal Predictive Ability generalizes the Superior Predictive Ability hypothesis from a single given loss function to an entire class of loss functions. Distinction is drawn...

We study how changes to the informativeness of signals in Bayesian games and single-agent decision problems affect the distribution of equilibrium actions. A more precise private signal about an unknown state of the world leads to an mean-preserving spread of an agent's beliefs. Focusing on...

We study the experimentation dynamics of a decision maker (DM) in a two-armed bandit setup (Bolton and Harris [1999]), where the agent holds ambiguous beliefs regarding the distribution of the return process of one arm and is certain about the other one. The DM entertains Multiplier preferences...

The economic reliability of a performance metric depends on its consistency with the Net Present Value (NPV). We use the new notion of strong NPV-consistency for comparing the Straight-Line rate of return (belonging to the class of AIRR metrics) and the traditional Internal Rate of Return (IRR)....

This study explains aspects and strategies of critical decision in crisis management. Critical decisions enable organizations to cope with consequential environmental threats or take advantage of important opportunities in the presence of highly restricted time. In particular, critical decisions...

Turbulent environment can create crises that management has to soles in a limited time with critical decisions. Critical decisions are an attempt to apply efficient modes of cognition and action to enable the organization to cope with consequential environmental threats or take advantage of...

This paper prices the financial derivative whose payoff is the wealth that would have accrued to a $1 deposit into the best continuously-rebalanced portfolio in hindsight. For the market with a risk-free bond and a single stock in geometric Brownian motion, Cover and Ordentlich (1998) priced...

In this research, in total 68 construction related companies, which belong to three different interconnected sectors (manufacturing, construction, and finance), are ranked according to their business performance by TOPSIS and MAUT method with two different weighting system, equal-weighted and...