This paper analyses the distribution of long-term inflation expectations in the euro area using individual density …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

We use several US and euro-area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation … featuring time-varying uncertainty. We obtain survey-consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the US … and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that …

of the inflation rate in order to allow the European Central Bank (ECB) to achieve both price and macroeconomic stability …

This paper studies factors behind inflation dynamics in the euro area, the UK and the US. It introduces a factor … inflation in the three economies. The FAVAR model framework is also applied to study the effects on inflation subcomponents in … the more recent past. The FAVAR models suggest that headline inflation in the three economies has reacted in a relatively …

​This paper examines recent changes in the cyclicality of euro area inflation. We estimate time-varying parameters for … become steeper since 2012. Thus, the current low level of inflation and persistently negative output gap increase the risk … that euro area inflation will stay below the monetary policy target for an extended period …

For the last two years inflation has been systematically falling across countries in the European Union and lately it … exhibits rising deflationary pressures. Recent studies suggest that apart from global determinants influencing broad inflation … measures, e.g. plummeting commodity prices, core inflation components are subjected to the rising influence of globalization …

The effect of the euro exchange rate on inflation has taken on significant importance recently, with the application of …-up in expected euro area inflation. However, the subsequent depreciation, since February 2018, might reflect factors related … movements to overall consumer-price inflation in the Spanish economy has increased slightly in recent years, owing mainly to the …

Despite closing output gaps and tightening labor markets, inflation has remained low inthe euro area. Based on an … augmented Phillips Curve framework, we find that thisphenomenon-sometimes attributed to low global inflation-has been primarily … causedby a remarkable persistence of inflation, keeping it low despite the reduction in slack. Thisfeature is shown to be …

This paper analyzes the inflation processes of twelve Euro Area countries over the period 1984:q1-2017:q4. The stylized … features of inflation uncover its changing nature and cross-country heterogeneity, in terms of mean, volatility and persistence …. After estimation of a wide array of unobserved components models, we isolate trend inflation rates in a framework that …