(especially credit) indicators is generally found to be efficacious …

importance of house prices and credit in affecting the likelihood of a financial crisis. Estimating a set of multivariate logit … models, we find that booms in credit to both households and non-financial enterprises are important to account for when … power for domestic financial stability. Finally, econometric measures of bubble-like behavior in housing and credit markets …

This paper provides an early warning indicator for bubbles in financial markets. The indicator is based on traditional … consensus bubbles and gives warning signals well ahead of the crash, in most cases as early as 12 months ahead. The indicator … also signals most of the 'negative bubbles' before their turning points …