uncertainty. Positive/negative bubbles arise when prior public beliefs about the aggregate productivity of producers (business … uncollateralized credit. We find that this kind of policy is more successful in suppressing equity price swings than moderating output …

This paper explores the role of private credit variables as early warning indicators (EWIs) of banking crises in … under the curve (AUC) on long series on credit to the private non-financial sector. The results suggest that credit … emerging economies. Credit growth outperforms credit-to-GDP gap in all time horizon. These findings are particularly important …