This paper analyses the role of M3 as an indicator for future inflation and correspondingly for current monetary policy in the euro area. We analyse the short and long run interrelationship between inflation and money growth in an error correction framework taking into account the output gap and...

This paper analyzes the recently documented instability of money demand in the euro area in the framework of a Markov switching trend model. First, we consider a standard flexible price model with stable money demand, rational expectations, and an exogenous income-money ratio which follows a...

The information contained in a large panel data set is used to date historical turning points of the Austrian business cycle and to forecast future ones. We estimate groups of series with similar time series dynamics and link the groups with a dynamic structure. The dynamic structure identifies...

It is common to transform data to stationarity, such as by differencing and demeaning, before estimating factor models in macroeconomics. Imposing these transformations, however, limit opportunities to learn about trending behaviour. Trends and deterministic processes can play a central role in...

Factor modelling extracts common information from a high-dimensional data set into few common components, where the latent factors usually explain a large share of data variation. Exploratory factor estimation induces sparsity into the loading matrix to associate units or series with those...

This paper considers factor estimation from heterogenous data, where some of the variables are noisy and only weakly informative for the factors. To identify the irrelevant variables, we search for zero rows in the loadings matrix of the factor model. To sharply separate these irrelevant...

Modelling the growth rate of economic time series with a Markov switching process in their mean and/or their variance allows to take account of two facts that are often encountered in such series, namely that the periods in which each mean is prevailing differ in their duration and that the...

We analyze quarterly occupation-level data from the US Current Population Survey for 1976-2013. Based on common cyclical employment dynamics, we identify two clusters of occupations that roughly correspond to the widely discussed notion of “routine” and “non-routine” jobs. After...

We document whether a simple, univariate model for quarterly GDP growth is able to deliver forecasts in a crisis period like the Covid-19 pandemic, which may serve cross-checking forecasts obtained from elaborate and expert models used by forecasting institutions. We include shocks to the log...