2004 Annual Report Essay: Nobel Lecture by Edward C. Prescott

Emerging market economies typically exhibit a procyclical fiscal policy: public expenditures rise (fall) in economic expansions (recessions), whereas tax rates rise (fall) in bad (good) times. Additionally, the business cycle of these economies is characterized by countercyclical default risk....

We seek to explain the economic volatility of the last 6 years, in particular the rapid expansion and contraction of the knowledge sectors. Our hypothesis is that these sectors amplify the business cycle due to their increasing returns to scale, growing faster than others in an upswing and...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to survey literature on macroeconomic nonlinear dynamics. Design/methodology/approach – The paper identifies five influential types of models where the possible generation of endogenous cycles and chaotic motion arises. First, the frameworks that make...