In many credit risk and pricing applications, credit transition matrix is modeled by a constant transition probability or generator matrix for Markov processes. Based on empirical evidence, we model rating transition processes as piecewise homogeneous Markov chains with unobserved structural...

We analyze a three-player legislative bargaining game in which legislators privately informed about their preferences bargain over an ideological and a distributive decision. Communication takes place before a proposal is offered and majority rule voting determines the outcome. When ideological...

We develop a three-dimensional concept of supervisor-subordinate guanxi. This concept includes affective attachment, personal-life inclusion, and deference to supervisor. Based on this concept, we conducted three studies to develop and validate a three-dimensional supervisor-subordinate guanxi...

Do mandatory spending programs such as Medicare improve efficiency? We analyze a model with two parties allocating a fixed budget to a public good and private transfers each period over an infinite horizon. We compare two institutions that differ in whether public good spending is discretionary...

We propose an Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (ADNS) model to adaptively detect parameter changes and forecast the yield curve. The model is simple yet flexible and can be safely applied to both stationary and nonstationary situations with different sources of parameter changes. For the 3- to...

Understanding multi-market interactions and identifying leading markets in the global financial network is of interest to investors, regulators and policymakers. To discover the essential dynamic dependencies of digital currency exchanges, we propose TriSNAR, a three-layer sparse estimator for...

In this paper we propose the GHADA risk management model that is based on the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and on a nonparametric adaptive methodology. Compared to the normal distribution, the GH distribution possesses semi-heavy tails and represents the financial risk factors more...

Bitcoin blockchain has grown into an active global virtual money network with millions of accounts.We propose a Sparse-Group Network AutoRegressive (SGNAR) model to understand the dynamics of its cross-border transactions. It describes the money flows of virtual funds, with a focus on the...