Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls....

In this paper, we analyze which currencies can be regarded as safe haven currencies. Our empirical approach allows us to distinguish between a low- and high stress regime, and to control for the impact of carry trade reversals and other fundamental determinants. We therefore address the question...

Credibility and the international monetary regime : theoretical and historical perspectives / Michael D. Bordo and Ronald MacDonald -- Credibility and fundamentals : were the classical and inter-war gold standards well-behaved target zones? / Paul Hallwood, Ronald MacDonald, and Ian Marsh --...