This paper examines implications of the rational expectations-permanent income framework for (quasi-) savings using U.K. data. The residual from a cointegrating regression between income and consumption provides the (quasi-) savings series that is used in conjunction with differenced income in a...

We offer a method for assessing the progress of transition economies towards becoming market economies. A simple macroeconomic model is used which incorporates certain microeconomic features relevant to a transition economy that is introducing market-driven resource allocation. According to our...

In this paper we present an investigation of the pressures on the United States to devalue the dollar against the franc and gold in the early 1930s. We calculate monthly time-series of realignment expectations and find that these are well explained by a set of fundamental economic variables. The...

The influence of various aspects of life on wellbeing has been extensively researched. However, despite little empirical evidence, participation in leisure activities has been assumed to increase subjective wellbeing. Leisure is important because it is more under personal control than other...

Using survey expectations data and Markov-switching models, this paper evaluates the characteristics and evolution of investors’ forecast errors about the yen/dollar exchange rate. Since our model is derived from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) condition and our data cover a...

In this article the monetary approach to the exchange rate is tested for the franc‐pound, dollar‐pound and franc‐dollar exchange rates over the period February 1921 to August 1925. It is shown that the estimation technique utilised is very important. Some out of sample forecasts from a...

This article formulates, estimates and simulates a structural model of the sterling‐dollar exchange rate over the floating rate period. A critique of existing empirical implementations of the asset‐market approach is followed by formulating a small structural model which augments a carefully...

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the role of real effective exchange rate (REER) volatility on export volume and also to address the impact of the international financial crisis of 2008. Design/methodology/approach – The empirical methodology is based on...

This Paper proposes a new measure of contagion that is good at anticipating future vulnerabilities. Building on previous work, it uses correlations of equity markets across countries to measure contagion, but in a departure from previous practice, measures contagion using the relationship of...