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to counter the threat of a self-reinforcing deflation and recession spiral. This note reviews the available evidence on … draws a comparison to the Japanese experience with deflation in the late 1990s and the evidence from Japan concerning the … outputinflation nexus at low trend inflation. The note concludes from this evidence that the risk of a selfreinforcing deflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010400309
This paper estimates the expectation-augmented Phillips curve, which explains inflation dynamics, in Korea. The phenomenon of low inflation in Korea has been going on for quite some time, in particular since 2012. During the Covid-19 crisis, due to low inflation expectations the operation of...
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In the past five years, the inflation in the euro area has been well below the European Central Bank’s (ECB) aimed inflation rate of close to but below two percent for achieving its objective of price stabilization in the medium term. The present analysis shows that expectations of low...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011917388
This paper presents the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) -based framework for analysing euro area inflation outlook. Our NKPC specification, that relies on market- and survey-based inflation expectations, explains well euro area inflation dynamics. Its forecasting performance is also...
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We use a simple macroeconomic model proposed by Bernanke and Blanchard (2023) to investigate the reasons for the recent sharp rise in inflation. Applied to Germany and the euro area, the model suggests that the surge in inflation has mainly been caused by commodity price shocks and supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014519212
The present paper uses survey data on expected consumer price developments to analyse the role of inflation expectations in the inflation process. The survey measures of price expectations are derived from the European Commission's Consumer Survey and from the surveys of professional experts...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011419361
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