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Monetary policymakers and long-term investors would benefit greatly from a measure of underlying inflation that uses … all relevant information, is available in real time, and forecasts inflation better than traditional underlying inflation … measures such as core inflation measures. This paper presents the “FRBNY Staff Underlying Inflation Gauge (UIG)” for CPI and …
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policymaking. On the other hand, traditional core inflation measures may reduce volatility but do not address other issues and may … even exclude important information. This paper develops a new underlying inflation gauge (UIG) for China which … differentiates between trend and noise, is available daily and uses a broad set of variables that potentially influence inflation …
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This paper proposes an econometric framework for nowcasting the monetary policy stance and decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB) exploiting the ow of conventional and textual data that become available between two consecutive press conferences. Decompositions of the updated nowcasts into...
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