This Report analyzes the impacts of population ageing on the Finnish economy and the possibilities to avoid its negative effects by increasing net migration. Our calculations show that a yearly net migration of 44,000 persons is needed to stabilize the size of the birth cohorts and the labor...

Future improvements in mortality are difficult to forecast. In this paper, we incorporate uncertainty about future mortality, or aggregate mortality risk, into an otherwise standard life cycle model with an intertemporal consumption-savings decision. The aggregate mortality process is calibrated...

This paper presents a stochastic population forecast for China with a special emphasis on population aging. Stochastic forecasting methods have the advantage of producing a projection of the future population including a probabilistic prediction interval. The socalled scaled model for error was...

We develop a method for computing probabilistic household forecasts which quantifies uncertainty in the future number of households of various types in a country. A probabilistic household forecast helps policy makers, planners and other forecast users in the fields of housing, energy, social...

Historical evidence shows that demographic forecasts, including mortality forecasts, have often been grossly in error. One consequence of this is that forecasts are updated frequently. How should individuals or institutions react to updates, given that these are likewise expected to be...