This Report analyzes the impacts of population ageing on the Finnish economy and the possibilities to avoid its negative effects by increasing net migration. Our calculations show that a yearly net migration of 44,000 persons is needed to stabilize the size of the birth cohorts and the labor...

When the future evolution of demographic processes is described in a stochastic setting, the challenge is to communicate the meaning of forecast uncertainty in an understandable way, to decision makers and public at large. For the purpose of risk communication, a formal setting is developed, in...

In this paper, we investigate the impact of demographic uncertainty in a multi-regional general equilibrium, overlapping generations model (INGENUE 2). Specifically, we will consider the level of uncertainty in each of the ten major regions of the world, and their correlation across regions. In...

Brief description of the project: Apart from coordination the project consists of seven work packages. WP2 analyses errors of past forecasts. On the assumption that the future distribution of forecast errors is the same as in the past, errors of past forecasts can be used to calculate the...

We propose a new view of initial nonresponse bias in longitudinal surveys. Under certain conditions, an initial bias may "fade-away" over consecutive waves. This effect is discussed in a Markovian framework. A general contraction theorem for time inhomogeneous Markov chains is presented. The...