We develop a new technique to estimate vector autoregressions by quantile regression. A factor structure is used to remove cross-section correlation in the residuals such that the system can be estimated on an equation-by-equation basis using existing quantile regression toolboxes. We use our...

We derive a new method of modelling the Taylor Rule in a system setting which expressly accounts for its combination of I(0) and I(1) series. Using a long sample of US data, our model provides modest support for an inertial Taylor-type rule. However, estimation across rolling windows indicates...

This paper analyses the international linkages of the Korean economy using the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2012a, J. Appl. Econometrics). By employing a combination of generalised impulse response analysis and forecast error variance decompositions, we uncover a...

This paper develops a simple two-country stock-flow consistent model based on that of Godley and Lavoie (2007b). In order to motivate the use of stabilisation policies, persistent inflationary pressure and endogenous economic cycles are introduced into the model. Three scenarios are then...

This chapter demonstrates the usefulness of the GVAR modelling framework as a tool for scenario-based forecasting and counterfactual analysis. Working with the GVAR model developed by Greenwood-Nimmo, Nguyen and Shin (2010, J. Appl. Econometrics), we first show how probabilistic forecasting can...

Monetary theory typically assumes that the pass-through from policy-controlled interest rates to longer term rates and yields is complete, rapid and symmetric. We investigate these assumptions by applying the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model advanced by Shin, Yu and Greenwood-Nimmo (2013) to the...

We develop a global vector autoregressive model to study the transmission of information between currency spot markets. Our model accounts for both simultaneous and dynamic interactions between exchange rates and order flows using historical data from the Reuters Dealing 2000 – 1 platform for...

The spillover index developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (Economic Journal, 2009, vol. 119, pp. 158-171) is widely used to measure connectedness in economics and finance. Abrupt increases in the spillover index are thought to result from major economic and financial events, but formal evidence of...

The existing empirical literature on Taylor-type interest rate rules has failed to achieve a robust consensus. Indeed, the relatively common finding that the Taylor principle does not hold has fueled a degree of controversy in the field. We attribute these mixed estimation results to a raft of...