This paper studies a game of strategic experimentation with two-armed bandits whose risky arm might yield a payoff only after some exponentially distributed random time. Because of free-riding, there is an inefficiently low level of experimentation in any equilibrium where the players use...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the Euro Area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: "Low", "Medium" and "High" inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time...

Two econometric issues arise in the estimation of complete systems of producer or consumer demands when many non-negativity constraints are binding for a large share of observations, as frequently occurs with micro-level data. The first is computational. The econometric model is essentially an...

Although it is well known that Markov process theory, frequently applied in the literature on income convergence, imposes some very restrictive assumptions upon the data generating process, these assumptions have generally been taken for granted so far. The present paper proposes, resp. recalls...

This article tries to connect two separate strands of literature concerning genetic algorithms. On the one hand, extensive research took place in mathematics and closely related sciences in order to find out more about the properties of genetic algorithms as stochastic processes. On the other...

The paper introduces preference persistence into a dynamic discrete choice model of demand for durables. This persistence may arise, for example, when the products can be categorized into a few number of formats, which involve special knowledge, maintenance and upgrade. The standard optimal...

Estimation of conventional Taylor rules for Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru shows that central banks increase their repo rate in response to increases in the output gap and, except in Peru, to deviations of inflation expectations from target. Using a Markov-Switching methodology, it is found...

We analyze dynamic price competition in a homogeneous goods duopoly, where consumers exchange information via word-of-mouth communication. A fraction of consumers, who do not learn any new information, remain locked-in at their previous supplier in each period. We analyze Markov perfect...

We present a duopoly model of strategic capital accumulation in continuous time with uncertainty, such that investment takes the form of singular control. Spot competition is of Cournot type. For this model there exists a parameterized and Pareto-rankable family of Markov perfect equiblibria in...

This paper uses several macroeconomic and financial indicators within a Markov Switching (MS) framework to predict the turning points of the business cycle. The presented model is applied to monthly German real-time data covering the recession and the recovery after the financial crisis. We show...