The "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose" [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual mac-roeconomic forecast in … Germany. Jointly produced by up to six institutes, its accuracy as well as the large number of involved participants is often … forecasts to influence the JD forecast? Results show that there is no strong evidence of bias or inefficiency of the institutes …

The “Gemeinschaftsdiagnose” [Joint Diagnosis (JD)] is the most influential semi-annual mac-roeconomic forecast in … Germany. Jointly produced by up to six institutes, its accuracy as well as the large number of involved participants is often … forecasts to influence the JD forecast? Results show that there is no strong evidence of bias or inefficiency of the institutes …

main contribution is that we model the Euro area countries separately. In this version we consider Germany and France … zunächst drei Länder modelliert, nämlich die USA und aus dem Euro-Währungsgebiet Deutschland und Frankreich, die zusammen etwa … Zeitpunkten werden präsentiert und diskutiert. -- Mehrländermodell ; Prognose ; Bayesianische Ökonometrie …

Based on German business cycle forecast reports covering 10 German institutions for the period 1993-2017, the paper …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …-Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a "data-poor environment" at the sub-national level by including more than …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … forecast accuracy for the candidate models and benchmarks, using rolling window and expanding window forecasting evaluation … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …

bank's own interest rate expectations. From a theoretical point of view, the latter should yield the highest forecast …