We document information rigidity in forecasts for real GDP growth in 46 countries over the past two decades. We investigate: (i) if rigidities are lower around turning points in the economy, such as in times of recessions and crises; (ii) if rigidities differ across countries, particularly...

We examine the behavior of forecasts for real GDP growth using a large panel of individual forecasts from 30 advanced and emerging economies during 1989–2010. Our main findings are as follows. First, our evidence does not support the validity of the sticky information model (Mankiw and Reis,...

To examine whether including economic data on other countries could improve the forecast of U.S. GDP growth, we construct a large data set of 77 countries representing over 90 percent of global GDP. Our benchmark model is a dynamic factor model using U.S. data only, which we extend to include...

This paper presents a procedure to construct an asymmetric fan chart of risks around global growth forecasts. The distribution of risks around global growth forecasts is estimated by weighting information extracted from option pricing and survey-based measures of risk factors of global growth....

Forecasts of global growth have historically been imprecise, punctuated by periods of optimism and pessimism. Inaccuracy in forecasting partly reflects quantifiable risks to the global outlook as well as economic uncertainty

The paper looks at the development of the secular stagnation thesis, in the context of the economic history of the time. It explores some 19th century antecedents of the thesis, before turning to its interwar development. Not only Alvin Hansen, but Keynes and Hicks were involved in the...

For Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries, the euro area is the most important export destination. Nevertheless, geographical export patterns differ among individual CESEE countries, and economic growth within the euro area has diverged in the run-up to and since the...