Models of simultaneous discrete choice may be incomplete, delivering multiple values of out- comes at certain values of the latent variables and covariates, and incoherent, delivering no val- ues. Alternative approaches to accommodating incompleteness and incoherence are considered in a unifying...

A specific concept of structural model is used as a background for discussing the structurality of its parameterization. Conditions for a structural model to be also causal are examined. Difficulties and pitfalls arising from the parameterization are analyzed. In particular, pitfalls when...

Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...

In establishing the foundation for their investment process, investors typically set up the investment framework first by dividing their investment universes into different buckets along the combinations of multiple sensible dimensions such as geography and industry. As the framework is applied...

The paper analyses the method adopted by the index of employment protection systems developed in 1999 by the OECD and discusses its reliability and shortcomings, in particular with regards to Italy. The paper highlights a series of problems of method arising from the aggregation of the...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

In this paper we study a random coefficient model for a binary outcome. We allow for the possibility that some or even all of the regressors are arbitrarily correlated with the random coefficients, thus permitting endogeneity. We assume the existence of observed instrumental variables Z that are...

This paper studies single equation instrumental variable models of ordered choice in which explanatory variables may be endogenous. The models are weakly restrictive, leaving unspecified the mechanism that generates endogenous variables. These incomplete models are set, not point, identifying...

We study models with discrete endogenous variables and compare the use of two stage least squares (2SLS) in a linear probability model with bounds analysis using a nonparametric instrumental variable model. 2SLS has the advantage of providing an easy to compute point estimator of a slope...

This paper studies simultaneous equations models for two or more discrete outcomes. These models may be incoherent, delivering no values of the outcomes at certain values of the latent variables and covariates, and they may be incomplete, delivering more than one value of the outcomes at certain...