This paper revisits the trade-of between central bank independence and conservatism using a New Keynesian model with uncertainty about the central banker's output gap target. It is shown that when this uncertainty is high, the trade-of no longer holds. In this case, the optimal combination...

Is there a systematic mapping between the Federal Reserve's expectations of macro variables and the words it uses to talk about the economy? We propose a simple framework that allows us to estimate communication rules in the United States based on text analysis with regularized regressions. We...

The movement toward increased transparency on the part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has concentrated on additional explicitness about the forecasts of the economy by its individual participants. Especially with the funds rate near its zero lower bound, the FOMC has become more...

US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) projections for the federal funds rate are inherently subject to revision with the availability of new data. But when issued jointly with projections for macroeconomic aggregates, they also contain conditional information about the intended future policy...

This paper aims at assessing the relevance of communicating central bank's forecasts to the private sector under discretionary monetary policy. In a New Keynesian environment, the central bank and the private sector have different information sets. The private sector uses the central bank's...

This paper examines the policy experience of the Fed, ECB and BOJ during and after the Covid-19 pandemic and draws lessons for monetary policy strategy and its communication. All three central banks provided appropriate accommodation during the pandemic but two failed to unwind this...