Global real interest rates were driven up in the 1980s, partly to encourage disinflation, while subsequently structural and conjunctural factors have driven rates to lower levels. The increase in the global pool of savings and the fiscal correction associated with the long economic expansion...

The financial crisis and its aftermath has stimulated a vigorous debate on the use of macro-prudential instruments for both regulating the banking system and for providing additional tools for monetary policy makers. The widespread adoption of non-conventional monetary policies has provided some...

Using the business cycle accounting (BCA) framework pioneered by Chari, Kehoe and McGratten (2006) we examine the 2008-09 recession in the UK. There has been much commentary on the financial causes of this recession, which we might have expected to shock the equation governing the intertemporal...

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks...

Koop, Pesaran and Smith (2011) suggest a simple diagnostic indicator for the Bayesian estimation of the parameters of a DSGE model. They show that, if a parameter is well identified, the precision of the posterior should improve as the (artificial) data size T increases, and the indicator checks...

We show that a flex-price two-sector open economy DSGE model can explain the poor degree of international risk sharing and exchange rate disconnect. We use a suite of model evaluation measures and examine the role of (i) traded and non-traded sectors; (ii) financial market incompleteness; (iii)...

The financial crisis and subsequent economic recession led to a rapid increase in the issuance of public debt. But large-scale purchases of bonds by the Federal Reserve, and other major central banks, have significantly reduced the scale and maturity of public debt that would otherwise have been...

We estimate a macro-finance yield curve model for both the nominal and real forward curve for the UK from 1993 to 2008. Our model is able to accommodate a number of key macroeconomic variables and allows us to estimate the instantaneous response of the yield curve and so gauge the impact of...