Forward looking agents with expectational errors provide a problem for monetary policy. We show that under such conditions a standard interest rate rule may not achieve determinacy. We suggest a modification to the standard policy rule that guarantees determinacy in this setting, which involves...

This paper examines the information content of inflation forecasts derived using index-linked and conventional bonds. The paper finds that the derived inflation term structure (ITS) gives a somewhat better indication of the bond market's inflation expectation than can be derived using either the...

"The course of events during the nineteenth century favored such ideas [as price stability] ... the remarkable feature of this long period was the relative 'stability' of the price level. Approximately the 'same' level of price ruled in or about the years 1826, 1841, 1855, 1862, 1867, 1871 and...

In a New Keynesian macroeconomic model under credible commitment, price level targeting dominates inflation targeting. But with sufficient inflation aversion the inflation-targeting central bank can produce quantitatively similar results to one targeting the price level. The current degree of...

Stabilization policy involves joint monetary and fiscal rules. We develop a model enabling us to characterize systematic simple monetary and fiscal policy over the business cycle. We principally focus on the following question: what are the key properties of the joint simple rule governing the...

When the monetary authority controls the short-term interest rate we find that under a regime of permanent (and even persistent but temporary) deficits that a strict upper bound on the feasible interest rate sequence is present. More generally, the satisfaction of the fiscal authority's present...

It has recently been suggested by Robert Lucas that "shoe-leather" costs of inflation may amount to as much as 1% of GNP in the United States. This paper assesses the U.K. evidence for the period 1970-1994. Similar estimates to those of Lucas are found using his original specification, but a...