This paper aims to analyze, by using the concept of mutual information, the existing relationship between the nominal exchange rate and different inflation components. The proposed information measure captures the dependence structure between these two variables, resulting in new empirical...

This paper estimates the effects of monetary policy on the UK economy based on a new, extensive real-time forecast data set. Employing the Romer Romer identification approach we first construct a new measure of monetary policy innovations for the UK economy. We find that a one percentage point...

In this study, we examine how the interaction between monetary policy and macroeconomic conditions affects inflation uncertainty in the long-term. The unobservable inflation uncertainty is quantified by means of the slowly evolving unconditional variance component of inflation in the framework...

We employ a money-based early warning model in order to analyse the risk of a low inflation regime in the Euro Area, Japan and the US. The model specification allows for three different inflation regimes: "Low", "Medium" and "High" inflation, while state transition probabilities vary over time...

How does the need to preserve government debt sustainability affect the optimal monetary and fiscal policy response to a liquidity trap? To provide an answer, we employ a small stochastic New Keynesian model with a zero bound on nominal interest rates and characterize optimal time-consistent...

In November, according to the data of business surveys of the Gaidar Institute1, the industry failed to retain the positive impulse of previous months. The negative dynamics of demand failed to live up with enterprises’ expectations as regards the eff ect of import substitution declared by the...

This paper investigate the stabilization bias that arises in a model of non-cooperative monetary and fiscal policy stabilisation of the economy, when monetary authority implements price level targeting but fiscal policy remains benevolent. We demonstrate the gain in welfare improvement depends...

This paper studies discretionary non-cooperative monetary and …fiscal policy stabilization in a New Keynesian model, where the …fiscal policymaker uses a distortionary tax as the policy instrument and operates with long periods between optimal time-consistent adjustments of the...