A Productivity Commission Staff Working Paper, The Armington Model, by Peter Lloyd and Xiao-guang Zhang was released on 8 February 2006, in conjunction with an additional staff working paper, Armington Elasticities and Terms of Trade Effects in Global CGE Models. The paper explores how models...

This study examines China's growth patterns through its exports, foreign capital inflows, balance of payments and terms of trade, and projects them into a comparative framework. It brings together, for the first time, various sources of historical data from the first globalisation era, relating...

This paper focuses on analysing the evolution of the terms of trade of products in the agricultural and food trade in the second half of 20th century. We have compiled 56 new price indices for internationally‐traded agricultural products. Furthermore, in order to obtain real prices, the...

This paper investigates the international transmission of productivity shocks in a sample of five G7 countries. For each country, using long-run restrictions, we identify shocks that increase permanently domestic labour productivity in manufacturing (our measure of tradables) relative to an...

We analyse an economy that lacks a strong legal-political institutional infrastructure and is populated by multiple powerful groups. Powerful groups dynamically interact via a fiscal process that effectively allows open access to the aggregate capital stock. In equilibrium, this leads to slow...

In mid-2008, the real effective exchange rate of the dollar was close to its minimum level for the past 4 decades. At the same time, however, the U.S. trade and current account deficits remain large and, absent a significant correction in coming years, would contribute to a further accumulation...

This paper considers the ultimate causes of post-war UK business cycles. Using an extended stochastic growth model we construct estimates of a productivity and preference shock both of which are highly persistent, volatile and potentially capable of explaining UK business cycles. We find the...

The paper develops a two-good, small country, general equilibrium trade model with endogenous labour supply, where trade is restricted by a tariff or an import quota. Within this framework, it is shown that, contrary to Anam (1989), under an import quota domestic and world prices may vary in the...

This paper extends Svensson and Razin's two period analysis of the Laursen-Harberger-Metzler effect to the important case where labour supply and output are variable. A terms of trade shift alters the relationship between the product and the consumption wage and so induces a change in output....

In real terms, gross-domestic-product indicators do not record a country's trading gain or loss. The real growth of gross domestic income, which include terms-of-trade changes, were approximately one percentage point higher than the GDP growth rates of the Czech Republic and belonged among the...