The paper will discuss the proposed regulatory frameworks (market valuation of liabilities) in Europe and the implications it will have on pension provision. The impact on current DB pension schemes and insured solutions with guarantees will be discussed in detail especially on the...

Nonlinear regime-switching behavior and structural change are often perceived as competing alternatives to linearity. In this article we study the so-called time-varying smooth transition autoregressive (TV-STAR) model, which can be used both for describing simultaneous nonlinearity and...

In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterize nonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditional variance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting of specification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed. Misspecification...

In this paper we introduce the STAR-STGARCH model that can characterizenonlinear behaviour both in the conditional mean and the conditionalvariance. A modelling cycle for this family of models, consisting ofspecification, estimation, and evaluation stages is constructed.Misspecification tests...

This paper considers the use of smooth transition autoregressive models for forecasting. First, the modelling of time series with these nonlinear models is discussed. Techniques for obtaining multiperiod forecasts are presented. The usefulness of forecast densities in the case of nonlinear...

In this paper a unified framework for testing the adequacy of an estimated GARCH model is presented. Parametric LM or LM type tests of no ARCH in standardized errors, linearity, and parameter constancy are proposed. The asymptotic null distributions of the tests are standard, which makes...