Using company level data from 17 countries that have suffered a currency crisis during the past decade, this paper documents that firms have increasing leverage and declining profitability prior to a crisis, while still making positive net investments. After sorting companies into two groups...

We explore the informational value of credit default swaps and the extent to which they may be linked to financial crises. After developing a theoretical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and equity and currency markets, we apply an empirical study which uses...

This paper is an empirical investigation into the duration of exchange rate episodes characterized by the absence of speculative attacks. We estimate a duration model for OECD countries during the 1970-1997 period. Specifically, we use semi-parametric methods to estimate model with unrestricted...

This paper analyses predictions of a simple model of currency crises in which the peg will be abandoned when the currency overvaluation hits a certain threshold, unknown to the agents. Due to learning about the threshold, some features usually observed in the data and identified with models with...

This paper investigates contagion effects. In a model with highly and lowly informed investors we show that a currency crisis in one country can trigger a crisis in another country. Portfolio losses of the highly informed investors in one country will force them to withdraw capital from the...

In recent years currency crises affected not only Southeast Asian countries, but transition economies as well. The Russian crisis of August 1998 was perhaps the most spectacular example, but it was preceded by currency crises in Bulgaria and Romania in 1996-97, in Ukraine and Belarus in 1997-98...

Market participants' risk attitudes, wealth and portfolio composition in°uence their positions in a pegged foreign currency and, therefore, may have important e®ects on the sustainability of currency pegs. We analyze such e®ects in a global game model of currency crises with continuous action...

El análisis de los periodos de turbulencias de la moneda española dentro de la disciplina del Sistema Monetario Europeo es el objetivo de este trabajo. En un momento histórico para Europa, en el que acaba de hacerse efectiva la Unión europea, y cuando algunos países se plantean la...

We offer evidence in this paper that US interest rate policy has an important influence in the determination of credit spreads on emerging market bonds over US benchmark treasuries, and therefore on their cost of capital. Our analysis improves upon the existing literature and understanding, by...

Economies are susceptible to speculative attacks regardless of whether they use fixed or floating exchange rates. Turkish experience in the last two decades constitutes one of the most prominent examples proving this verdict. It is widely accepted that narrow money (M1) is the most conventional...