Similar Search Results

Hill, Brian - 2019

This paper develops a belief update rule under ambiguity, motivated by the maxim: in the face of new information, retain those conditional beliefs in which you are more confident, and relinquish only those in which you have less confidence. We provide a preference-based axiomatisation, drawing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012259555

Symmetry axioms and perceived ambiguity

Klibanoff, Peter; Mukerji, Sujoy; Seo, Kyoungwon - 2017

Since at least de Finetti [7], preference symmetry assumptions have played an important role in models of decision making under uncertainty. In the current paper, we explore (1) the relationship between the symmetry assumption of Klibanoff, Mukerji and Seo (KMS) [21] and alternative symmetry...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011694779

Choice deferral and ambiguity aversion

Kopylov, Igor - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 4 (2009) 2, pp. 199-228

When confronted with uncertain prospects, people often exhibit both choice deferral and Ellsberg-type ambiguity aversion. This paper obtains a joint representation for these behavioral phenomena. The decision maker as portrayed by my model is willing to choose an uncertain prospect f over g...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011699104

A test of information aversion

Kops, Jan Christopher; Pasichnichenko, Illia - 2020

The standard Bayesian model implies that information can never have a negative value. We put this implication to the proof. Our paper provides the first test of the value (positive or negative) of information under uncertainty. We show that the "Bayesian implication" stands in conflict with the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012204037

Incomplete Incentive Contracts Under Ambiguity and Complexity

Sommer, Svenja C.; Loch, Christoph H. - 2013

learning, or flexibly adjusting to new information about the environment as it emerges. While the actions to be taken under the … selectionist approach can be defined at the outset, and thus standard contracting theory applies, trial & error learning involves …. In a search model in a complex performance landscape, this paper first shows that trial & error learning is more …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014075158

Counterfactual Priors : A Bayesian Response to Ellsberg's Paradox

Koundouri, Phoebe; Pittis, Nikitas; Samartzis, Panagiotis - 2023

This paper analyzes the root cause of Ellsberg-type choices. This class of problems shares the feature that at the time of the decision, t=m, the decision maker (DM) possesses partial information about the events/propositions of interest: DM knows the objective probabilities of some sub-class...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014358482

Navigating ambiguity : imprecise probabilities and the updating of disease risk beliefs

Kerwin, Jason; Pandey, Divya - 2023

Probabilistic risk beliefs are key drivers of economic and health decisions, but people are not always certain about their beliefs. We study these "imprecise probabilities", also known as ambiguous beliefs. We show that imprecision is measurable separately from the levels of risk beliefs. People...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014390526

An Evolutionarily Motivated Model of Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

Srivastava, Nisheeth; Schrater, Paul - 2010

There has been a recent shift in decision theory research from attempting to fix classical compensatory models towards adopting non-compensatory models of decision-making. This shift has arisen largely because of the inability of compensatory expected-utility based approaches to explain a large...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014190628

Manipulating reliance on intuition reduces risk and ambiguity aversion

Butler, Jeffrey; Guiso, Luigi; Jappelli, Tullio - 2013

Prior research suggests that those who rely on intuition rather than effortful reasoning when making decisions are less averse to risk and ambiguity. The evidence is largely correlational, however, leaving open the question of the direction of causality. In this paper, we present experimental...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010200793

Uncertainty, learning and ambiguity in economic models on climate policy : some classical results and new directions

Lange, Andreas (contributor); Treich, Nicolas (contributor) - 2007

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003564224